Textzitat aus der englischen Seite zu finsteren Zeiten

Geschrieben von franke43 am 21. April 2004 13:10:54:

Hallo

Hier ein Textzitat aus der Zusammenfassung dieser
Seite (die schon jemand zitiert hat)

http://website.lineone.net/~marc.widdowson/theory.html

zu finsteren Zeiten. In etwa dieselbe Richtung wie
Oswald Spengler.


Similarly, the high level of integration of an ascendant society ensures a historically unfamiliar degree of peace and order. Those who live under such conditions, convinced that their power will endure, also suppose that war has all but ended in their time and that the future will be one of increasing peace and harmony between the peoples of the world. The reality, as we know, is that power is usually short-lived. Hence, such forecasts are often made just before the outbreak of the biggest bloodbath in history to date. One historian predicted in 1899 that the 20th century would be marked by a spirit of peaceful conservatism, economy, timidity, and preservation of the status quo - just fifteen years before the advent of the first world war, and eighteen before the advent of Lenin. In 1784, Condorcet in France wrote of the prevailing spirit of moderation and peace, and suggested that henceforth wars and revolutions would be less frequent. This was just five years before the French revolution, and eight years before Condorcet himself called his nation to a war that would ravage Europe for twenty three years.

Thus, in spite of experience, people always believe that it will be different this time. Yet it never is different time. In the end, experience has always triumphed over hope. As uniformitarians we should find this very telling. No matter how persuasive the case may seem to be for the continued ascendancy of say Europe over Africa or against the possibility in the next few decades of global thermonuclear war, we should not trust it. As Paul Kennedy has pointed out, the belief that humans would never be so foolish again as to engage in all-out great power war prevailed through most of the 19th century. It was argued that the increasing destructiveness of war had made it obsolete. As late (or as early) as September 1913, one writer predicted the peaceful settlement of disputes because modern communications had made the world into a single unit.

Kommentare:

Kurz vor dem Jahreswechsel 1913/14 hatte ein
norwegischer Ministerpräsident vor dem norwegischen
Parlament "Stortinget" erklärt:

"Der politische Himmel über Europa ist wolkenlos"

Chamberlain kam 1938 von der Münchner Konferenz
zurück mit dem Versprechen "Peace for our time"

Ich glaube 1990 rief George Bush sr. das Ende der
Geschichte und der bewaffneten Konflikte aus, kurz
vor dem ersten Golfkrieg USA/Irak und kurz vor dem
Zerplatzen Jugoslawiens und der neuen Serie von
Balkankriegen, deren Ende wir immer noch nicht
absehen können.

Wer also glaubt, alles bei den Sehern sei nur noch
"Kappes" und könne so nicht mehr eintreten, der
rechne mit dem Element der Überraschung in der
Geschichte.

Oder wie Wilhelm Busch reimte:

Wenn einer, der mit Mühe kaum
gekrochen ist auf einen Baum,
schon meint, dass er ein Vogel wär,
SO IRRT SICH DER.

Gruss

Franke





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