Öl- und Gasreserven rascher aufgebraucht als vermutet?

Geschrieben von Andreas am 03. Oktober 2003 12:52:22:

Als Antwort auf: NACHRICHTEN (o.T.) geschrieben von Pez am 02. Oktober 2003 22:58:20:

World oil and gas supplies are heading for a "production crunch" sometime between 2010 and 2020 when they cannot meet supply, because global reserves are 80 per cent smaller than had been thought, new forecasts suggest.

Research presented this week at the University of Uppsala in Sweden claims that oil supplies will peak soon after 2010, and gas supplies not long afterwards, making the price of petrol and other fuels rocket, with potentially disastrous economic consequences unless people have moved to alternatives to fossil fuels.

While forecasters have always known that such a date lies ahead, they have previously put it around 2050, and estimated that there would be time to shift energy use over to renewables and other non- fossil sources.

http://www.rense.com/general42/suop.htm

Widdowson hierzu:

It seems obvious that if you keep taking stuff out of the ground, you will eventually run out. Yet, as the economist Julian Simon has pointed out, the cost of every natural resource has decreased over recorded history, showing that resources tend to become less scarce--affront to common sense though that may be. Simon points out the role of what he calls the ultimate resource, i.e. human ingenuity, which allows people to exploit new materials or find new ways of exploiting old materials. R Buckminster Fuller also pointed out the phenomenon of ephemeralisation, whereby new technologies tend to reduce the pressure on resources--for example, today's mobile phone is less demanding of energy and raw materials than its bulky predecessor, while being vastly more capable. In any case, humanity has just scratched the surface of part of one planet in the solar system. The supposed problem of running out of resources is a pure myth and fantasy.

Fazit: Ressourcenknappheit kann sehr wohl ein kurzfristiges Problem darstellen, insbesondere bei einer absteigenden Zivilisation, sie ist jedoch kein langfristig unüberwindliches Problem. Ein Dark Age wird das Problem lösen.




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