Saddam's Plan for Victory

Geschrieben von Andreas am 30. März 2003 17:52:25:


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IRAQ: Saddam's Plan For Victory

March 30, 2003: Saddam's Plan For Victory

Saddam Hussein has several advantages over the coalition forces. First of all, the Iraqi leadership is literally fighting for their lives. Between the smart bombs and potential Iraqi lynch mobs, Saddam and his inner circle must either win or likely get killed. This is a great motivator, which their opponents do not have. Secondly, Saddam has the media advantage. While many Iraqis favor Saddam's overthrow, most Arabs, and most people in the world, oppose the war. There are enough short-wave radios and satellite dishes in Iraq for Iraqis to be influenced by this world wide support for the tyrant that oppresses them. This has an effect. And this world wide support gives Saddam an opportunity to win the war. This is how Saddam figures he can pull it off.

First, Saddam must trigger a "humanitarian crises." This is being done by having his armed followers attack and interfere with any attempts at bringing food, medical and other aid to the Iraqi people. Get those TV camera crews out where Iraqi civilians are suffering, and increase the suffering as much as possible.

Second, start demanding a ceasefire so that the humanitarian crises can be attended to.

Third, if a ceasefire is obtained, even if only in part of Iraq, violate is in order to redeploy forces for continued fighting and continue harassment of aid activities. Deny the violations, of course. Blame it on uncontrollable "patriotic Iraqis" and vigorously wring hands over the suffering of the Iraqi people.

Fourth, put pressure on world opinion and UN to call for withdrawal of "invading army" from Iraq to ease the suffering of the Iraqi people.

Repeat as needed.


Anti-Aircraft Blues

The commander of air defenses in Baghdad has been fired because of the large number of surface to air missiles that have fallen back into the city and caused casualties. It appears that most of the civilian casualties in Baghdad have been caused by missiles and shells falling back to earth and hitting people. This has been a common problem for as long as anti-aircraft weapons have been used around densely populated areas. Oh, and he also got canned because he has been unable to bring down a coalition aircraft.

The dozens of anti-aircraft radars surrounding Baghdad are rarely turned on, apparently because the Iraqis know that they will quickly be hit with a HARM missile (that homes in on the radar transmitter.) As a result, the Iraqis have been relying on firing guns and missiles without using radar guidance. For missiles, this means firing them in groups into the night sky, in the general direction of where enemy aircraft are thought to be. No coalition aircraft have been hit, but many missiles have fallen back on the city.

Daylight bombing raids on Baghdad are becoming more common, indicating that Iraqi air defenses are considered largely ineffective.

In the areas around Baghdad where the six Republican Guard divisions are deployed, coalition bombers and gunships are playing hide and seek with the enemy. The Iraqi troops are hiding themselves and their armor vehicles in villages, towns and orchards. Spy satellites, recon aircraft and UAVs scour the area for targets, and attack. However, it is known that Iraqi officers were briefed by the Serb army on how American air power was deceived during the Kosovo bombing campaign in 1999. In that case, the American bombers were deceived over 90 percent of the time as they attacked with the same weapons being used now. Perhaps in recognition of this, a lot of the air attacks have been against Republican Guard fuel and ammunitions storage sites. When you bomb one of these successfully, you see a larger "secondary explosion", as the fuel or ammo is set off.

Iraqi deserters report increased use of terror and executions in Iraqi army units in order to prevent troops from going home or fleeing to coalition forces.

Yesterday's attack on the Ansar al Islam in northern Iraq yielded a large quantity of documents in the villages along the Iranian border occupied by the Islamic radical group. At least 130 Ansar members were killed in the attack, as well as three of that 8,000 Kurdish militiamen who made the attack under the direction of a hundred U.S. Special Forces. At least 500 Ansar members fled into the mountains, towards Iran, with Kurdish troops and Special Forces in pursuit. Some al Qaeda members were reported to be with Ansar, but so far there are no reports of them being identified among the dead or the few Ansar members captured.

Coalition planners underestimated a number of Iraqi capabilities, and this is causing major problems now. The strength of the Iraqi political and secret police forces in controlling the population was not accurately measured. Nor was the ability of the Iraqis to keep their television and radio stations going despite heavy bombing. The Iraqi propaganda machine is a major advantage in wartime, and assists the activities of the armed Saddam supporters in southern Iraq. After the war, you'll be hearing a lot about the "intelligence failure."

In southern Iraq, U.S. and British Marines are using similar tactics to battle Saddam loyalists. The Marines are getting information from deserters, captured soldiers and civilians about who the Saddam supporters are and where they hang out. Then the Marines are sending in patrols to attack the Saddam loyalists where they live, when they least expect to be hit. This induces terror and is one reason why many of the senior Baath Party officials have fled Basra and other southern cities. The Marines are making use of massive amounts of information the United States intelligence agencies are collecting in Iraq every day. This data gives some indication of the extent of operations by armed Saddam supporters. Saddam does not have an unlimited number of people willing to fight and die for him. It would appear that his hard core fighters are limited in number. In some areas, they have been wiped out, and no replacements stepped forward.

Why do the Arabs hate the West? It's not just Americans that are hated in the Arab world, it's the entire non-Moslem world. A lot of it has to do with the failure of Arab cultures to keep up with the rest of the world, despite huge oil wealth. The majority of the world's oil supplies are in Arab nations, yet other nations that were as poor as Arab countries were three decades ago are now much better off. What went wrong? In Arab eyes, it can't be anything that Arabs have done, or not done, but must be the result of a conspiracy to "keep the Arabs down." So while countries like South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia (an Arab state) prosper, the Arab world stagnates, and vast numbers of unemployed young men look for someone to punish for their dire situation. The Arabs don't want to admit that economic and political prosperity requires rule of law (most Arab states are very corrupt), education (few women go to school), hard work (much oil wealth goes to hiring foreigners to do the physical labor) and economic opportunity (corruption makes that difficult.) It's no wonder that nearly half of Arab males want to migrate, and the millions that make it to the United States do much better. But back home, it's fashionable to blame someone else and wallow in self pity and despair. It's no wonder suicide becomes a popular military weapon. The same attitudes that prevent the creation of decent government or vibrant economies also gives rise to inept armed forces. So we also have the sorry spectacle of Arab armies being unable to win a war, for they are not only fighting the enemy, but their own bad habits as well.


Iraqi deserters report Saddam supporters threatening soldiers with death to their families if they don’t carry out suicide bombing attacks on coalition forces. While the first few Iraqis to make these attacks will have their families rewarded, if many attacks are made, the only reward will be no killings of the suicide bombers family.

Despite all the reports of attacks on coalition supply convoys, few such attacks actually take place and most convoys never encounter any enemy fire. However, the troops in the convoys are heavily armed and quick to fire at any Iraqis that ignore warnings and get too close to them.

Total U.S. casualties after ten days of operations are 36 dead, 15 missing, seven prisoners and 104 wounded. That's about 16 casualties a day for a force of nearly 100,000 ground troops.

The brigade of the 82nd Airborne division has shown up at an airbase outside Nasiriyah, where it appears to be preparing for operations deeper into Iraq. The airbase is also being used by A-10 warplanes and Apache helicopter gunships.

The 101st Airborne Division and it's 270 helicopters are working their way towards Baghdad from bases around Karbala and to the west.


March 29, 2003: Iraq admitted that the suicide bombing in southern Iraq was deliberate. Iraq has long paid large cash awards to the families of Palestinian suicide bombers and in the past week, Palestinian terrorist organizations have urged Saddam to use suicide bombings against the invaders. During the 1980s war with Iran, Saddam spent billions of dollars in payments to the families of men killed in the war, This was done to maintain the good will of the population in a very unpopular war (Saddam had invaded Iran in the first place.) In Arab terms, it's not a bad deal for a son with poor prospects (unemployed or inept) to "do something for the family" by getting killed in return for a large sum of cash. This sort of thing has become very fashionable among young Moslems.

Iraqi troops in the north again retreated from Kurdish militias and moved closer to the major oil city of Kirkuk. More Iraqi soldiers in the north are surrendering and telling the Kurds that morale is low and that few Iraqi troops want to fight and die for Saddam.


March 29, 2003: Where have all the flowers gone? When American troops entered Kosovo in 1999, Moslem Albanians cheered and threw flowers. When American troops entered Afghanistan towns in 2001, Moslem Afghans cheered and threw flowers. When American troops entered Iraq in 2003, Moslem Iraqis glowered and a few threw grenades. Unlike Kosovo and Afghanistan, the entry of American troops has not caused the bad guys to flee. Saddams security troops and Baath Party members have much to fight for and are willing to do just that.

American generals have commented that the current resistance in Iraq was not what they encountered in their wargames. This is one of the weaknesses of the use of wargaming in the Department of Defense. There has long been a reluctance to diligently pursue "what if?" possibilities. Instead, it's more popular to test procedures. Nothing wrong with that, but the most valuable aspect of wargames is the ability to test enemy capabilities, not your own ability to perform complex military operations. Wargaming Saddam's government means taking into account changes since 1991. In the last twelve years, Saddam's rule has become more brutal and complete. The 1991 war did not go after Saddam's government officials and secret police. Those that were in Kuwait quickly fled back to Iraq. But now you have to fight these thugs and one thing American wargames should have explored more diligently was; what do you do if the thugs get organized and fight? That question now has to be answered while the shooting is going on.

The US plan, by all indications (force buildup and comments by senior officials) indicated a bold, quick decapitation attack. This type of operation depends on "maintaining the initiative." This means keeping your troops moving and constantly doing something before the enemy can respond. But the three day sandstorm, and the growing attacks on supply troops with irregulars has stopped the coalition advance. The initiative has been lost and it will be difficult to regain it. One way to do that is to make an attack on Baghdad from several directions. That may be what is in the works, as troops go after the armed Saddam loyalists down south, while continuing to move combat units closer to Baghdad.


What Saddam Learned from Serbia, Stalin and the SS

Saddam Hussein has always been a quick learner, and willing to change rapidly to survive. He seeks out nations in similar situations (ruthless dictatorships at war) and compares notes. He also looks at other brutal dictatorships of the 20th century and adopts techniques that worked for them. There are many examples.

Serbia, whose former president is now on trial for war crimes, was engaged in ethnic cleansing and war with its neighbors through most of the 1990s. The Serbs became quite cozy with Iraq during that period. Saddam picked lots of useful information on dealing with American air power and manipulating the media. Serbia used masterful deceptions to save its tanks and artillery from U.S. smart bombs. The Serbs also modified their anti-aircraft defenses to down the first F-117 stealth aircraft destroyed in combat. Saddam has not had much success copying these Serbian success. But Saddam has, apparently pulled off another favorite Balkan trick. This is the "kill your own civilians to gain media sympathy" routine. In the early 1990s, during the Serbian siege of the Bosnian city of Sarajevo, mortar shells would sometimes fall into crowded market places, killing and injuring dozens. The Serbs, who were guilty of many atrocities, were blamed. But then some UN peacekeepers, while investigating the attacks, noted that the location where the shells landed indicated that they could only have been fired from Bosnian controlled territory. The Serbs were also known to use this trick, but as with much else in the Balkans, no one will admit anything.

But now you have "American missiles" mysteriously going off in Baghdad market places. Foreign reports brought to visit the sight of the "American atrocity" have noted that the craters are shallow, unlike the deep craters U.S. bombs and missiles leave behind. There are also no fresh bomb or missile fragments to examine. One is left with the impression that these were car bombs, not smart bombs. The U.S. has also pointed out that most of the civilian casualties in Baghdad so far have been from Iraqi anti-aircraft shells and missiles falling back to earth. Iraq uses a lot of old, large, Russian anti-aircraft missiles. The SA-2, for example, weighs 2.5 tons at launch and carries 286 pound warhead. The SA-3 has a 132 pound warhead, and the SA-6 a 130 pound warhead. These missile warheads are supposed to go off in the air if a target is not found, but this doesn't always work. In that case, the missile falls to earth, where it's warhead usually goes off on impact. But the pinpoint accuracy with which "American missiles" hit "crowded Baghdad markets" in rapid succession is a little too coincidental, and has all the marks of a Balkans bombing scam. Anything to get a photo op of "American atrocities" to inflame Iraqis and overseas allies.

Russian dictator Joseph Stalin is another role model for Saddam Hussein. Stalin set up a police state that even the Nazis admired for its brutal and ruthless efficiency. Saddam particularly liked the Stalinist techniques of establishing informers in every neighborhood or apartment house. This, coupled with savage punishments for real or suspected traitors and their families, created a fear among the population that made rebellion difficult. More importantly, it created a group of thugs, torturers and secret policemen who were hated by the population. This hate was good for Saddam, for it insured the loyalty of these henchmen. If the Iraqi people got a shot at their oppressors, they would quickly kill them. In the early days of World War II, Stalin used his "organs" (as the Russians called the secret police and security forces) to restore order among the armed forces and population panicked by the rapid advance of the German blitzkrieg through western Russia. Some pundits point out that Saddam sees himself in the same position as Stalin, and is depending on his "organs" to use guns and threats to mobilize the troops and people to defend the country. What is forgotten is that in 1941, the Germans were initially greeted as liberators by the majority of Russian civilians. But the Germans were not there to liberate Russians, but to conquer Russia so they could enslave the population and steal their land. The Russian people soon turned against the Germans. But 24 years earlier, when the Germans conquered much of western Russia during World War I, the Russians under German control were allowed to govern themselves. There was no resistance to the Germans then (but there an invasion from Russia after the Germans left). So Saddam feels that if he can demonize the invaders sufficiently in the media, and keep his secret police and security forces forcing Iraqis to fight long enough, he can defeat the invaders.

Saddam also learned from the World War II Nazi Germans, even though the Germans lost World War II. The Sunni Arabs of Iraq admired the Nazis from the beginning, in the 1930s. Much of the Nazi "National Socialist" philosophy was adopted by the Iraqi Baath party. Especially government control of most of the economy and hatred of Jews, and anyone who "is not like us." But Saddam was especially attracted to one uniquely Nazi institution; the Schutzstaffel ("SS"). The Nazis developed special police, security and military units composed of party members, and called it the SS. The majority of those in the SS were in the Waffen SS ("armed SS"), well trained, armed and motivated combat units. Saddam has done the same thing with his Republican Guard. But here he has gone the Nazis one better. While the Waffen SS never comprised more than seven percent of the German armed forces, the Republican Guard makes up over twenty percent of the Iraqi armed forces. Like the Waffen SS, the Republican Guard can be expected to stand and fight to the death. While the Republican Guard are much less capable soldiers than the Waffen SS, they are just as reliable. And Saddam no doubt takes some comfort from the fact that the Nazis formed three SS divisions from pro-German Moslems in the Balkans during World War II.

As the old saying goes, you can learn a lot about a person by finding out who their heroes are.


Near the Iraqi city of Najaf, an Iraqi car bomb killed five American soldiers.

In Basra, it was discovered that some 200 local Saddam supporters were meeting in a multi-story building. Two smart bombs hit the building and destroyed it and, apparently, the people in it. A nearby church was unharmed.

While most media coverage has concentrated on southern Iraq, it appears that coalition special operations troops (rangers, Special Forces and commandos) have conquered most of western Iraq. This area is largely a desert, but it contains dozens of military installations and some small towns and villages. Most of the Iraqi troops in the area have been killed, captured or fled back towards Baghdad. U.S. forces control some 300 kilometers of the road that connects Baghdad with Jordan. This has long been a vital supply route for Iraq. Much of the weapons and military equipment coming in arrived via truck from Jordan. It's also been noted that the only traffic you hear about lately is that coming down the roads from Syria. At the moment, the roads to Syria and parts of the Iranian border, are the only ones the government controls. For the moment.

There are very few embedded journalists with the special operations troops, so little has been reported on what is going on where they operated. There have been reverses. A special forces A team was overrun by about a hundred Iraqi troops outside of Irbil in northern Iraq.

March 28, 2003: Overnight, U.S. Apache gunships attacked Iraqi combat units near Karbala. Other Apache gunships from the U.S. 101st Airborne division attacked Republican Guard positions south of Baghdad. Nightly bombings continue against Baghdad and other cities.

Coalition warplanes are flying 700-1000 sorties a day, compared to over 2,000 a day during the 1991 Gulf War.

In northern Iraq, 6,000 Kurdish troops and a hundred American Special Forces have jointly attacked Islamic radical Ansar al-Islam fighters camped near the Iranian border. Over a hundred of the thousand or so Ansar fighters were either killed, captured. The rest fled to mountain caves right on the Iranian border. In those caves, the Ansar no longer have access to food and other supplies, unless they establish supply routes through the mountains into Iran.

After Iraqi troops retreated about 20 kilometers from their positions facing armed Kurds in northern Iraq, some Kurdish fighters advanced to within 16 kilometers of Kirkuk (the major oil city in the north). The Iraqis eventually fired on those Kurds with artillery. The Kurds pulled back.


The U.S. has warned Syria to stop allowing military equipment to be shipped into Iraq, along with volunteers to fight for Iraq. The same warning was directed at Iran, although in that case the complaint was just about letting pro-Saddam volunteers entering Iraq.

The U.S. 4th Infantry Division, originally set to operate from Turkey, won't be ready to move out of Kuwait until late April.

The attacks on coalition troops in southern Iraq had resulted in very lopsided casualties. For every coalitions soldier killed, 50-100 Iraqis are getting killed. The Iraqis show little military skill, other than staying under cover until coalition troops or vehicles come near. Then, the Iraqis come out and fire assault rifles or rocket propelled anti-tank grenades (RPGs). Sometimes the Iraqis use mortars, but they have found that coalition artillery radars can quickly track the flight of the shells back to where the mortars are and shell the mortars and their crews. Iraqi mortar fire is also very inaccurate, as is their use of most weapons. It is not known how many Iraqis are willing to participate in these kinds of attacks. In some areas along the coalitions supply roads from Kuwait north, attacks have decreased or stop. Attacks in Basra have declined as British marines kill off the Iraqi attackers and, as the British recently discovered, the Baath Party leadership fled the city.



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