Klima: Ungereimtheiten in der Statistik - Treibhauseffekt künstlichen Ursprungs?

Geschrieben von mica am 27. Juli 2003 23:06:06:

Hallo,

nochmals ein englischsprachiger Text(sorry, kann das jetzt nicht übersetzen), zu Klimaveränderung und Treibhauseffekt.

In den wissenschaftlichen Veröffentlichungen wird viel zu wenig auf die Diskrepanz zwischen Satelliten gestützen Messungen und Oberflächenmessungen eingegangen. Oberflächenwerte zeigen Temperaturrekorde, Satellitendaten hingegen liegen im Durchschnitt.


Satellite versus Surface Temperatures

The satellite temperature record contradicts the surface record. This is a deep dilemma for climate change science. The gaping inconsistency between the recent warming shown in the surface temperature record and the absence of warming in the satellite record is simply shrugged off.

The UN IPCC WGI SPM page 4 begins with this section headline: "Temperatures have risen during the past four decades in the lowest 8 kilometres of the atmosphere." As explained below, this statement is highly misleading. The section itself consists of these three rather convoluted paragraphs:

"Since the late 1950s (the period of adequate observations from weather balloons), the overall global temperature increases in the lowest 8 kilometres of the atmosphere and in surface temperature have been similar at 0.1°C per decade.

"Since the start of the satellite record in 1979, both satellite and weather balloon measurements show that the global average temperature of the lowest 8 kilometres of the atmosphere has changed by +0.05 ±0.10°C per decade, but the global average surface temperature has increased significantly by +0.15 ±0.05°C per decade. The difference in the warming rates is statistically significant. This difference occurs primarily over the tropical and sub-tropical regions.

"The lowest 8 kilometres of the atmosphere and the surface are influenced differently by factors such as stratospheric ozone depletion, atmospheric aerosols and the El Niño phenomenon. Hence, it is physically plausible to expect that over a short time period (e.g., 20 years) there may be differences in temperature trends. In addition, spatial sampling techniques can also explain some of the differences in trends, but these differences are not fully resolved."

These three paragraphs mask a profound contradiction in climate change science, a contradiction that should be highlighted and discussed but is merely glossed over--namely, that the satellite temperature record contradicts the surface record.




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