Re: und hier jetzt ein echter

Geschrieben von franz_liszt am 18. Mai 2003 22:33:38:

Als Antwort auf: Das Ei des Kolumbus? absichtlich herbeigeführter Beinahe-Weltuntergang geschrieben von franz_liszt am 18. Mai 2003 22:04:01:

...ääh - Vorbeiflug *g*

Hallo Foris,

vielleicht kann jemand aus dem Text herauslesen, ob der Komet, der sein Perihelion 15.5.(!!!) 2004 hat, aus einer Ecke kommt, die prophezeit wurde?

If it indeed stays on its current prescribed path, Comet NEAT will pass closest
to the Earth on May 7, 2004 at a distance of just under 30 million miles (48.3
million kilometers). It will appear to rise out of the evening twilight during the
first week of May 2004 and move northward from Canis Major, through Cancer
by midmonth and on into Ursa Major by month’s end.

Gefunden auf Cyberspaceorbit.com

Gruß franz_liszt

*********

Hier der ganze Text:


COMET NEAT`S BROTHER IS COMING! AND IT IS BIGGER!

Comet Could Brighten Night Skies Next Spring

Mark your calendars for this time next year, when a rare, bright naked-eye
comet might grace the spring evening sky. Then again, maybe not.


Back on Aug. 28, 2001, the International Astronomical Union (IAU) announced
the discovery of a new comet spotted by Near Earth Asteroid Tracking team at
Palomar Observatory in southern California. Like several other comets, this one
has come to be called NEAT, the acronym for the discovery program.


The comet should not be confused with another that recently looped around the
Sun and that also bore a NEAT moniker. That comet NEAT was designated
C/2002 V1. The comet NEAT anticipated for next year has been designated as
C/2001 Q4.


The potential


The potential for a bright comet show for the spring of 2004 is based on an
improved orbit that places the new comet NEAT’s closest point to the Sun, or
perihelion, at a distance of 89.4 million miles (143.9 million kilometers) on May
15, 2004.


The comet was nearly a billion miles (1.6 billion kilometers) from the Sun when it
was discovered. At that time it was shining at magnitude 20, or more than
398,000 times dimmer than the faintest star visible to the unaided eye. Most
comets would be completely invisible at such a tremendous distance, even to the
telescope that found it, so the implication is that Comet NEAT C/2001 Q4 may
be an unusually large and active object.


The comet has brightened noticeably since its discovery, but is still very faint --
only about magnitude 14, still some 1,600 times fainter than the threshold of
naked-eye visibility. It is located within the faint constellation of Fornax, the
Furnace. It cannot be observed at the present time, since this part of the sky is
only above the horizon during the daytime.


Sizzle of fizzle?


Most new comets are notoriously unpredictable, and there is no guarantee that
comet NEAT won’t fizzle. The big question is whether this activity is the sign of
a truly great comet or just a temporary flare-up of an ordinary one.


A "new" comet in a parabolic orbit – that is, a comet that has never passed near
the Sun before – may be covered with very volatile material, such as frozen
carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and carbon monoxide. These ices tend to vaporize far
from the Sun, giving a distant comet a surge in brightness that can raise
unrealistic expectations. Several such flops appeared last century.


If you are at least 35 years old, you might remember the big build-up – and
subsequent letdown – for comet Kohoutek during the Christmas season of 1973.


Kohoutek was discovered more than nine months before it was due to sweep
around the Sun. At the time of its discovery in March 1973 it appeared unusually
bright for a comet so far out from the Sun (more than half a billion miles). Some
touted it as potentially the "Comet of the Century." Most astronomers hoped that
if it was so bright and unusual at its discovery, that it would keep on being bright
and unusual as it neared the Sun.


But it merely remained unusual rather than getting very bright.


In fact, except at the time of its perihelion, when astronauts on board the Skylab
Space Station caught a glimpse of it shining brilliantly next to the Sun, to
earthbound observers Kohoutek hardly appeared very bright at all. Many who
looked skyward – often through light polluted city skies – could barely perceive
the object without binoculars or telescopes.


Comet Cunningham in 1940-41 and Comet Austin in 1990 proved similarly
disappointing.


Not-so-NEAT calculations


On the other hand, a comet that is in an elliptical orbit and returning to the Sun
from the distant past has probably shed its highly volatile materials, so what we
would be seeing is the true underlying level of its activity. Comet Hale-Bopp,
which brightened the night sky during the late winter and spring of 1997, fell into
this class.


Unfortunately, as of this writing, calculations by orbital experts suggests that
Comet NEAT may be traveling in a parabolic orbit, hinting that it may indeed be
a new comet, like Kohoutek. This however, doesn’t automatically mean that
Comet NEAT will fizzle-out, since not all-new comets become duds. Comet
Arend-Roland is an outstanding exception, a first-timer that put on a spectacular
show in April 1957.

If it indeed stays on its current prescribed path, Comet NEAT will pass closest
to the Earth on May 7, 2004 at a distance of just under 30 million miles (48.3
million kilometers). It will appear to rise out of the evening twilight during the
first week of May 2004 and move northward from Canis Major, through Cancer
by midmonth and on into Ursa Major by month’s end.

And another thing …

If the prospects for one bright comet doesn’t excite you, how about two?

On Oct. 29, 2002, The IAU announced the discovery by the LINEAR survey of
a comet that may also become a bright naked-eye object in May 2004.

Designated C/2002 T7 (LINEAR), the comet is currently shining at around 15th
magnitude. The latest orbit suggests that it will come closest to the Sun on April
23, 2004 at a distance of about 57 million miles (91 million kilometers). Comet
LINEAR, however, appears to be on projected May 2004 track that would take
it eastward through the constellations of Pisces, Cetus, Eridanus, Lepus and
Canis Major. This would be too low in the sky and too close to the Sun, except
perhaps for those at far-southerly latitudes such as Australia, South Africa.

Should either comet evolve into a bright first-magnitude object as some forecasts
suggest, either or both could end up becoming striking sights one year from now,
with NEAT adorning our evening sky soon after sunset and LINEAR appearing
first in the morning and then later in the evening.

But if either or both turns out to be duds, they will appear as nothing more than
fuzz-balls in small telescopes.

We’ll just have to wait and see. One thing is for sure: the countdown is on!



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