USA: Rückgang der Produktion ('Disorganisation')
Geschrieben von Andreas am 17. Mai 2003 13:23:09:
Als Antwort auf: NACHRICHTEN (owT) geschrieben von Johannes am 17. Mai 2003 02:16:39:
Quelle: http://www.jsonline.com/bym/news/may03/141027.asp
U.S. manufacturing down in April
The nation's manufacturing economy downshifted last month as factories lumbered at their lowest capacity in two decades and overall industrial output declined for the sixth time in nine months.
A raft of dispiriting government data Thursday depicted a recovery crawling ahead in low gear, shedding jobs as it goes, even as fears tied to the Iraq war subside. Thursday's numbers were particularly unsettling for the Midwest, where manufacturing remains the backbone of the regional economy."Manufacturing is in danger of a double dip," said Jerry Jasinowski, president of the National Association of Manufacturers in Washington, D.C.
Deepening the malaise, wholesale prices dropped by a record 1.9% in April and reawakened concerns over deflation - a dire economic malady that becomes devilishly difficult to reverse once it becomes entrenched. Japan's decade-long slump is widely attributed to its own bout of deflation, which stems from a chain reaction of falling prices that sets in motion a downward spiral of falling wages and profits, which in turn destroys wealth across an entire economy.
The Federal Reserve Bank ominously drew attention to the specter of deflation last week when it warned of "an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation." Jittery investors, leery of anything that smacks of falling prices, will pay keen attention to today's publication of the consumer price report for April.
Optimists combing through an unusually heavy day of raw numbers, however, found a few glints of hope.
The number of people who filed for unemployment benefits remained at worrisome levels but declined for a third consecutive week. In New York, a Federal Reserve Bank manufacturing index took a huge leap to 10.6 points in May from minus 20.2 in April.
The Fed's deflation warning had its own silver lining. It thrust 10-year interest rates in the bond market to a 45-year low of 3.5%, which in turn lowered the benchmark rates used to set mortgages. The Mortgage Bankers Association of America this week said the most common form of home loan, a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, fell to a record low of 5.27% amid a surge in new refinancing applications.
The nation's commercial health in April should be pivotal.
With the downturn now well into its fourth year, business leaders had pinned their hopes on fast resolution to the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Ahead of the war, fears of a prolonged and deadly engagement had depressed spending and hiring.
In many ways, the war went far better than feared: There were no counterattacks with biological weapons and no oil fields set on fire. Only 22 days elapsed from the day the U.S. began bombing Iraqi targets to the day that U.S. troops took control of Baghdad. That compares with five weeks that were needed to topple the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2001 and six weeks of combat in 1991 in the first Gulf War.
And it was on April 9 that U.S. Marines famously toppled a statue of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, signaling to the world that the old regime had fallen and leaving most of April to foster new confidence. In some ways, it did. Early readings of U.S. consumer confidence registered improvements after the war.
The trick now is to pass the baton from consumers to industry. And that clearly has not yet begun to happen.
"It looks like we will not see much of a bounce coming out of the Iraq war," said Scott Anderson, senior economist in Minneapolis for the Wells Fargo & Co. bank.
Low interest rates, falling oil prices and a weak dollar are all expected to support a recovery, but few can say with certainty when the economy will turn the corner. And there was little in this week's economic report card to lift the uncertainties.
Production in the country's factories, mines and energy utilities declined by 0.5% in April after falling by the same margin in March, the Fed reported. The drop has particular relevance to Wisconsin, which has the highest number of manufacturing jobs anywhere in the nation behind Michigan.
In a separate report, factory utilization rates slumped to 74.4%, the lowest level since June 1983. In the last recession of 1991, the lowest rate of capacity rates never fell below 77%. During the '90s, the rate averaged over 82%.