Bald Bürgerkrieg in Mazedonien?!?
Geschrieben von Marcus am 31. Juli 2001 15:29:19:
Den folgenden Text sollte man sich genau durchlesen...
Von: alert@stratfor.com
An: redalert@stratfor.com
Betreff: Macedonia: Only 1 More Issue of This Free Newsletter
Datum: Dienstag, 31. Juli 2001 07:15___________________________________________________________________
S T R A T F O RTHE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE COMPANY
http://www.stratfor.com
___________________________________________________________________30 July 2001
-> TODAY'S TOP INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Macedonia Accuses NATO of Siding With Militants
Macedonian government officials have lost their trust in
NATO,which is trying to restore a cease-fire that it brokered
between ethnic Albanian insurgents and Macedonian forces,
only to see it breached within weeks on July 21. Now Macedonia
legislators are rejecting NATO's new terms for peace with the
militants, and civil war is imminent. [...]
TODAY'S FREE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATEMacedonia Accuses NATO of Siding With Militants
Summary
Macedonian lawmakers are rejecting NATO's terms for peace with
ethnic Albanian insurgents. In an unusual turn of events,
Macedonian officials accuse NATO of trying to divide the country
along ethnic lines by throwing its weight behind ethnic Albanian
militants. Civil war is now imminent.Analysis
Ethnic Albanian militants, who on July 21 violated a weeks-old
cease-fire with the Macedonian government, have begun withdrawing
>from strategic positions in the north. This follows days of
violence and anti-Western riots that threaten to hurl the country
into civil war.Tensions remained high as officials from NATO and the European
Union attempted to negotiate a lasting cease-fire on July 26.
Days before, Macedonia's lawmakers had accused NATO of aiding
ethnic Albanian insurgents.Though Western journalists have viewed the accusation as a surge
of nationalism typical for the Balkan region, NATO's recent
dealings with Albanian insurgents do suggest some degree of bias,
if not complicity.Either through intent or mismanagement, NATO has helped prepare
the ground for civil war.Macedonia is the one former Yugoslav republic that remained
stable during the past 10 years while bloody ethnic conflicts
consumed both Bosnia and Kosovo.During the 1990s, nearly 100,000 people were killed and 3 million
displaced in the Balkans. Donor nations such as the United
States, Japan, Canada and members of the European Union shelled
out billions in reconstruction aid. Now, repeated incursions by
ethnic Albanian insurgents into Macedonian territories threaten
an encore of violence in the volatile region. [...]
Far from being seen as a peace guarantor, NATO would bear part of
the blame for a new civil war. NATO-led peacekeeping forces,
known as KFOR, occupy a region of Kosovo bordering northwestern
Macedonia. By order of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1244,
KFOR must secure arms and halt trafficking by Albanian militants,
but the force has failed to do so.Albanian insurgents began filtering into Macedonia from KFOR-
occupied areas of Kosovo in February, and they have repeatedly
fired on national police.KFOR has failed before to restrict the outflow of guns and
militants from Kosovo.For most of 2000, Albanian militants pressed into southeastern
Serbia to annex three towns with an Albanian population majority.
Many of the same militants redeployed to towns around Macedonia's
Tetovo and Gostivar districts during the past five months.As of the afternoon of July 25, militants were fighting for
control of more than 20 villages but began to withdraw hours
later in response to NATO requests.With their borders still porous to armed insurgents, Macedonians
fear active sabotage by NATO. For example, although the U.S.
State Department hired contractor Military Professional Resources
Inc. to train Macedonia's security forces in 2001, reports from
Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and Macedonia indicate U.S.
soldiers also escorted Albanian militants a few miles outside the
Macedonian capital of Skopje only weeks ago. The Skopje bi-
monthly Forum says the dual U.S. support is a means to disable
Macedonia's defenses and to bolster the ethnic Albanians.In both training and equipment, Macedonia's defense forces are
already at a substantial disadvantage. Albanians are using NATO-
issue 5.56 caliber weapons and third-generation, U.S.-issue
night-vision equipment, according to Russian media and Dnevnik,
the Skopje independent daily newspaper.Moreover, Vremya Novosti, a Russian daily, reported on July 26
that U.S. National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice said she
persuaded Ukrainian officials to cease arms shipments to
Macedonia. This could signal a potential arms embargo, further
undermining the Macedonian defenses.Underscoring their suspicion of NATO, Macedonian government
officials were alarmed on July 21 when a KFOR helicopter violated
Macedonia's airspace and touched down at two northern towns held
by Albanian militants.The country's Defense Ministry confirmed the landing, cited
eyewitness reports of cargo drops and demanded an explanation
>from KFOR. KFOR officially denied aiding the rebels, saying its
flights were meant to help establish NATO communications along
the border.Macedonia's majority party leaders also question NATO's political
neutrality. The alliance did not immediately condemn the
Albanians' recent violation of the cease-fire. Instead, American,
German and NATO officials have blamed lawmakers in Skopje for
disrupting the peace process by rejecting their proposals.A peace proposal drafted by the United States and Europe -- and
backed by NATO envoys -- demands compromises on the national
language from Macedonia but no concessions from Albanian
militants. The proposal would require that all state certificates
and laws be printed in the Albanian Roman alphabet and in
Macedonia's official Cyrillic alphabet, while correspondence to
and from the central government could be in either alphabet.Meanwhile, the proposal would also give smaller ethnic groups
such as Serbs, Turks, Vlachs and Roma equal rights in local
administrations where their populations exceed 20 percent, Radio
Free Europe reported.Macedonian lawmakers consider the proposal excessive. To
Macedonia's non-Albanian legislators, who see Macedonia as more
accommodative of minority rights than most Balkan states, the
suggestions for compromises amount to arm-twisting. They also
smack of betrayal to Macedonia, which has always supported NATO's
deployment and occasionally unpopular U.S. foreign policy in the
region.With its credibility in question, NATO may not be able to prevent
war in Macedonia. U.S. Embassy officials plan to evacuate
nonessential staff from Skopje.On July 20, NATO postponed plans to disarm Albanian militants due
to the resumption of hostilities, and an envoy from the
Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe said the
alliance is helpless against ethnic cleansing by Albanians, the
Bosnian Serb news agency SRNA reported.Macedonian officials are now willing to guard their borders
against NATO troops as well as Albanian militants. Prime Minister
Ljubco Georgievski plans to call a state of emergency. State
security forces locked down the borders on July 25, refusing
passage to KFOR and humanitarian aid workers.The Albanian militants' campaign will likely continue,
irrespective of NATO's 11th-hour efforts to restore a cease-fire.