Peak Oil Problematik und globale Koalitionen

Geschrieben von Andreas am 06. Januar 2005 19:55:47:

Im folgenden eine Zusammenfassung die ich rasch von einem lesenswerten Artikel zusammengeschrieben habe. Sie ist nicht nur für mich bestimmt und daher leider auf Englisch. Die wesentlichsten Punkte habe ich fett markiert.

http://www.btinternet.com/~nlpwessex/Documents/peakoil2014.htm

Peak Oil To Arrive As Early As 2014

The articles outlines in a clear-cut manner how a major shift in the
international power game might possibly come about as a result of "peak
oil". The main points made:

1. According to estimates by leading experts in government and industry,
maximum production of oil is likely to occur before 2020. Thereafter oil
prices will see a considerable rise.

2. The result of this: "The new-found wealth will alter the present
strategic relationship with the US: despite louder calls for reforms from
the US, the region (the Middle East) will spend its way out of reforms, and
the regimes will have the opportunity to use their financial might to co-opt
and divide the different interest groups".

3. Around 70% of the world's oil and roughly 65% of the gas reserves are
(according to German figures) believed to be located in a "strategic
elipse", covering the area from the Middle East over Central Asia/Caucasus
and West Siberia.

4. The US has, by invading Iraq, attempted to gain direct control over a
part of this area. "However, the White House miscalculation of the Iraqi
response to the occupation of their country has resulted in the opposite
effect. Iraqi oil production has fallen as the fighting continues, thereby
threatening an acceleration of the onset of the global peak."

5. The report points out at recent moves by China to secure its oil supply,
by negotiating agreements in Africa and South America, notably with
Venezuela and Iran. It suggests that the planned joint military manoevres
between Russia and China in 2005 "are intended to deliver a strong "You'd
better keep out of here" message to the White House."

6. The report concludes by raising strong doubts about the wisdom behind the
neocons' post 9-11 foreign policy: "On November 10 2004, Russia took the
lead role in coalition with China, India and Brazil to challenge the
super-power supremacy of the US. Brazil and Venezuela are very open to the
coalition concept where these large countries support each other in terms of
trade, economics, international politics and defense. This coalition is
composed of 75% of the world’s population and 80% of its natural resources."




Antworten: